I notice that some of these forecasts imply different paths to TAI than others (most obviously, WBE assumes a different path than the others). In that case, does taking a linear average make sense? Consider if you think WBE is likely moderately far away, versus other paths are more uncertain and may be very near or very far. In that case, a constant weight on the WBE probability wouldn’t match your actual views.
I notice that some of these forecasts imply different paths to TAI than others (most obviously, WBE assumes a different path than the others). In that case, does taking a linear average make sense? Consider if you think WBE is likely moderately far away, versus other paths are more uncertain and may be very near or very far. In that case, a constant weight on the WBE probability wouldn’t match your actual views.
I am not sure I follow 100%: is your point that the WBE path is disjunctive from others?
Note that many of the other models are implicitly considering WBE, eg the outside view models.
Yeah, my point is that it’s (basically) disjunctive.