Some examples (non-exhaustive) of things I consider to be closer to “forecasting” than “not forecasting.”
Knowing who to trust—Obviously knowing whether to trust others or when to trust experts/who is more reliable is very useful for good forecasts
Drawing analogies to other similar situations --???
Knowing when analagies are likely to be valid—This seems basically the same thing as knowing when outside views are applicable
Good intuition—I think a lot of good forecasting is having good intuitions
Methords for digging into intuitions
Ability to test and moderate your intuition
Foresight and predictions—wait how is this not forecasting?
A range of models of the world which can inform the judgment
Good heuristics -- (though maybe you’re thinking about different heuristics from me?)
Systems thinking -- (though possible I don’t know what this means)
Self-awareness—seems really important for good forecasts
Ability to adjust for unknown unknowns -- ^
Seeking evidence that contradicts the way you may want to go -- ^
Understanding and counteracting other biases -- ^
Understand statistics—At this point I’m just really confused here.
I also understand all of these as very important to forecasting.
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Some examples (non-exhaustive) of things I consider to be closer to “forecasting” than “not forecasting.”
I also understand all of these as very important to forecasting.