If you’re good at forecasting it’s reasonable to expect you’ll be above average at reasoning or decision making tasks that require making predictions.
But judgment is potentially different. In “Prediction Machines” Agrawal et al separate judgment and prediction as two distinct parts of decision making where the former involves weighing tradeoffs. That’s harder to measure but a potentially distinct way to think about the difference between judgment and forecasting. They have a theoretical paper on this decision making model too.
If you’re good at forecasting it’s reasonable to expect you’ll be above average at reasoning or decision making tasks that require making predictions.
But judgment is potentially different. In “Prediction Machines” Agrawal et al separate judgment and prediction as two distinct parts of decision making where the former involves weighing tradeoffs. That’s harder to measure but a potentially distinct way to think about the difference between judgment and forecasting. They have a theoretical paper on this decision making model too.
I think I agree with this answer.