Thanks, Grace. I think this is the most relevant section of the page explaining your areas relevant to my question:
How do the high-impact cause areas we recommend differ from each other in terms of scale, neglectedness, and tractability?
Importantly, none of the high-impact cause areas we recommend above rank highest on all three attributes of the scale, neglectedness, tractability framework. Each of them excel on various of these attributes that — when taken together — lead to them being impactful options. For example:
Global health and wellbeing is large in scale compared to other causes, but is small in scale compared to animal welfare and global catastrophic risk reduction. However, global health and wellbeing is likely the most tractable of the three cause areas — there are proven, concrete interventions that we know save lives.
Animal welfare is much larger in scale and much more neglected than global health and wellbeing, but much smaller in scale than global catastrophic risk reduction. On the flip side, it is less tractable than global health and wellbeing but more tractable than global catastrophic risk reduction.
Global catastrophic risk reduction is by far the largest in scale of the three cause areas, as mitigating a threat like rogue AI could affect not just those living today but the entire future of humanity (and other species too)! However, while highly neglected relative to its potential consequences, it is much less tractable than the other two cause areas.
The bullets do not really justify the bolded claim at the top because it is unclear which effects (of scale, tractability or neglectedness) dominate, and whether they are as you described (there are no sources in the bullets). Moreover, the product between scale, tractability and neglectedness as usually defined is equal to the cost-effectiveness, and I estimate the best animal welfare (AW) interventions are way more cost-effective than the best ones in global health and development (GHD).
I think prioritising the most cost-effective causes is what distinguishes effective giving initiatives. So I would say it would be good for you (GWWC) to analyse the question in more detail instead of defaulting to recommending with the same strength the 3 cause areas linked to the founding of effective altruism.
This isn’t something that GWWC is currently planning to look into, but I think it’s a good question and I’d like to see us develop our thinking about it further. We’ve made an internal note on this to discuss within the team!
We may also review this page mentioned next year to include sources.
For what is worth, I think keeping cause neutrality is important: the spirit of the 10% pledge is to do the most good, not choose specific causes. I would find it reasonable to highlight reasons why one may consider cause X particularly effective, but not give a final answer on this.
Hi Pablo. Cause neutrality is “the view that causes should be prioritized based on impartial assessments of impact rather than on other considerations, such as saliency or personal attachment”. As far as I can tell, the best AW interventions are way more cost-effective than the best in GHD, so I would say cause neutrality would imply recommending the best AW interventions over the best ones in GHD.
What I mean is that there’s some hard to objectively reduce uncertainty about these choices, so it is important to attach the pledge to the method, not the result we get at one point in time.
It would be similar as EA becoming just about animal welfare. Even if it were the most effective use of resources, you want to keep the method, not just stick to the result, and obviate how you got there.
Thanks, Grace. I think this is the most relevant section of the page explaining your areas relevant to my question:
The bullets do not really justify the bolded claim at the top because it is unclear which effects (of scale, tractability or neglectedness) dominate, and whether they are as you described (there are no sources in the bullets). Moreover, the product between scale, tractability and neglectedness as usually defined is equal to the cost-effectiveness, and I estimate the best animal welfare (AW) interventions are way more cost-effective than the best ones in global health and development (GHD).
I think prioritising the most cost-effective causes is what distinguishes effective giving initiatives. So I would say it would be good for you (GWWC) to analyse the question in more detail instead of defaulting to recommending with the same strength the 3 cause areas linked to the founding of effective altruism.
Hi Vasco,
This isn’t something that GWWC is currently planning to look into, but I think it’s a good question and I’d like to see us develop our thinking about it further. We’ve made an internal note on this to discuss within the team!
We may also review this page mentioned next year to include sources.
Thanks as always for your feedback :)
For what is worth, I think keeping cause neutrality is important: the spirit of the 10% pledge is to do the most good, not choose specific causes. I would find it reasonable to highlight reasons why one may consider cause X particularly effective, but not give a final answer on this.
Hi Pablo. Cause neutrality is “the view that causes should be prioritized based on impartial assessments of impact rather than on other considerations, such as saliency or personal attachment”. As far as I can tell, the best AW interventions are way more cost-effective than the best in GHD, so I would say cause neutrality would imply recommending the best AW interventions over the best ones in GHD.
What I mean is that there’s some hard to objectively reduce uncertainty about these choices, so it is important to attach the pledge to the method, not the result we get at one point in time.
It would be similar as EA becoming just about animal welfare. Even if it were the most effective use of resources, you want to keep the method, not just stick to the result, and obviate how you got there.
After all, changing assumptions (for example in the tools provided by rethink priorities, https://rethinkpriorities.org/our-research-areas/worldview-investigations/) you can get different answers of what you should prioritise.