I like the 1-year before more, because it takes time to accumulate power and overcome checks & balances.
I do think this has shortcomings, in that it’s hard to predict what would be attempted, and whether that would be successful. But I’m very much in favor of having multiple imperfect operationalisations and triangulate from those.
I like the 1-year before more, because it takes time to accumulate power and overcome checks & balances.
Yeah I before before starting this you’d want to look at historical landslide but fair elections and see how far in advance they were known. Things like UK Labour in 1997 or Nixon in 1972 / Obama in 2008. I don’t have a strong sense for the balance.
Interestingly, someone came up with a similar operationalisation just now! (Or maybe this is you?): https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti#zdkmuetvo8c
I like the 1-year before more, because it takes time to accumulate power and overcome checks & balances.
I do think this has shortcomings, in that it’s hard to predict what would be attempted, and whether that would be successful. But I’m very much in favor of having multiple imperfect operationalisations and triangulate from those.
Yeah I before before starting this you’d want to look at historical landslide but fair elections and see how far in advance they were known. Things like UK Labour in 1997 or Nixon in 1972 / Obama in 2008. I don’t have a strong sense for the balance.