One issue is the possibility that better research is more likely to bring in more funding than explicitly focusing on fundraising or outreach. This is somewhat supported by the much larger amount of funding that an organization like GW has moved (compared to Charity Science). We are currently very uncertain about whether this is true or not and can see a strong case for both viewpoints.
We can’t straightforwardly work out how valuable future (marginal) research by GiveWell or others is, as this seems quite different from the value of their historic research and basic maintenance of this. My personal sense is that outreach is more valuable at this point, though that’s of course uncertain.
I agree it’s really tricky and seems likely future research will be less valuable than historical ones. My personal sense varies a lot day to day on this question
We can’t straightforwardly work out how valuable future (marginal) research by GiveWell or others is, as this seems quite different from the value of their historic research and basic maintenance of this. My personal sense is that outreach is more valuable at this point, though that’s of course uncertain.
I agree it’s really tricky and seems likely future research will be less valuable than historical ones. My personal sense varies a lot day to day on this question