But there is still only so much time in the day, and many higher-tech leisure goods like TVs, gaming rigs, bikes, cars, yachts don’t rely much on LMIC labour anyway. (Some things like clothing and tents may be more exceptions.)
I do agree with you that some LMICs could see a boon—but I don’t expect this effect to be widespread across LMICs in general.
AI agrees with you on cars and yachts, but says the majority of TVs, gaming rigs, and bikes consumed in HICs are made in LMICs. Overall, I think I agree with you that the new demand created by new wealthy people would initially probably increase demand for manual laborers in HICs more than LMICs. However, if labor is the bottleneck, I think there will be a large incentive to shift production of goods to LMICs. I think this would not just be consumer goods, but even housing in the case of prefabricated panels (it only costs a few cents per kilogram to ship something across an ocean). I think it would also apply for high tech goods because the AI could tell the workers exactly what to do even if they are not very skilled. But I agree that this won’t necessarily work out for all LMICs (conflict zones, those that restrict trade, etc).
If governments are able to shift their tax bases towards capital we might see tax revenues remain stable.
I think it’s best to discuss this in your other post, but for completeness, here is my comment from there:
Epoch estimates that wages will ~10x in the run up to full automation. Capital would rise much faster. If TAI is anything like this, governments won’t have to worry about revenue.
AI agrees with you on cars and yachts, but says the majority of TVs, gaming rigs, and bikes consumed in HICs are made in LMICs.
Fair enough. I think most of these are made in Asia and I do expect Asia (particularly China) to fare better than most other LMICs or developing countries.
AI agrees with you on cars and yachts, but says the majority of TVs, gaming rigs, and bikes consumed in HICs are made in LMICs. Overall, I think I agree with you that the new demand created by new wealthy people would initially probably increase demand for manual laborers in HICs more than LMICs. However, if labor is the bottleneck, I think there will be a large incentive to shift production of goods to LMICs. I think this would not just be consumer goods, but even housing in the case of prefabricated panels (it only costs a few cents per kilogram to ship something across an ocean). I think it would also apply for high tech goods because the AI could tell the workers exactly what to do even if they are not very skilled. But I agree that this won’t necessarily work out for all LMICs (conflict zones, those that restrict trade, etc).
I think it’s best to discuss this in your other post, but for completeness, here is my comment from there:
Epoch estimates that wages will ~10x in the run up to full automation. Capital would rise much faster. If TAI is anything like this, governments won’t have to worry about revenue.
Fair enough. I think most of these are made in Asia and I do expect Asia (particularly China) to fare better than most other LMICs or developing countries.