I don’t think it is clear what the “crucial step” in AGI development will look like—will it be a breakthrough in foundational science, or massive scaling, or combining existing technologies in a new way? It’s also unclear how the different stages of the reference technologies would map onto stages for AGI. I think it is reasonable to use reference cases that have a mix of different stages/‘cutoff points’ that seem to make sense for the respective innovation.
Ideally, one would find a more principled way to control for the different stages/”crucial steps” the different technologies had. Maybe one could quantify the government control for each of these stages for each technology. And assign weights to the different stages depending on how important the stages might be for AGI. But I had limited time and I think my approach is a decent approximation.
I don’t think it is clear what the “crucial step” in AGI development will look like—will it be a breakthrough in foundational science, or massive scaling, or combining existing technologies in a new way? It’s also unclear how the different stages of the reference technologies would map onto stages for AGI. I think it is reasonable to use reference cases that have a mix of different stages/‘cutoff points’ that seem to make sense for the respective innovation.
Ideally, one would find a more principled way to control for the different stages/”crucial steps” the different technologies had. Maybe one could quantify the government control for each of these stages for each technology. And assign weights to the different stages depending on how important the stages might be for AGI. But I had limited time and I think my approach is a decent approximation.