Thanks! Gosh, it’s disappointing to learn that prediction markets wax and wane in popularity over time instead of steadily exponentially increasing as I had assumed. (I’m thinking about the ‘world events’ kind, not the sports or stock market kind) This makes me pessimistic that they’ll ever get big enough to raise the sanity waterline.
Thanks! Gosh, it’s disappointing to learn that prediction markets wax and wane in popularity over time instead of steadily exponentially increasing as I had assumed. (I’m thinking about the ‘world events’ kind, not the sports or stock market kind) This makes me pessimistic that they’ll ever get big enough to raise the sanity waterline.
Sorry, I meant “prediction market platforms” wax and wane, thought the other interpretation is also correct.
Also, for others reading the thread, the equivalent LW post got a better answer.