Nathan (or anyone who agrees with the comment above), can you even list all the things that, if they have even a 1% chance of failing then they are “worth someone thinking about in full-time”?
Can you find at least 1 (or 3?) people who’d be competent at looking at these topics, and that you’d realistically remove from their current roles to look at the things-that-might-fail?
Saying you’d look specifically at the FTX-fraud possibility is hindsight bias. In reality, we’d have to look at many similar topics in advance, without knowing which of them is going to fail. Will you bite the bullet?
I think that the core scandal is massive fraud, not exchange failure. The base rate of the fraud is presumably lower (though idk the base rates—wouldn’t surprise me if in crypto the exchange failure rate was more like 30% and fraud rate was 5% − 5% failure seems crazy low)
(disagree)
Nathan (or anyone who agrees with the comment above), can you even list all the things that, if they have even a 1% chance of failing then they are “worth someone thinking about in full-time”?
Can you find at least 1 (or 3?) people who’d be competent at looking at these topics, and that you’d realistically remove from their current roles to look at the things-that-might-fail?
Saying you’d look specifically at the FTX-fraud possibility is hindsight bias. In reality, we’d have to look at many similar topics in advance, without knowing which of them is going to fail. Will you bite the bullet?
Reminds me of this post:
https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/05/23/should-psychiatry-test-for-lead-more/
Which I recommend as “A Scott Alexander post that stuck with me and changes the way I think sometimes”
The failure rate of crypto exchanges is like 5%. I think this was a really large risk.
I think that the core scandal is massive fraud, not exchange failure. The base rate of the fraud is presumably lower (though idk the base rates—wouldn’t surprise me if in crypto the exchange failure rate was more like 30% and fraud rate was 5% − 5% failure seems crazy low)
Yeah, but this ignores my question.
(For example, how many other things are there with a failure rate of like 5% and that would be very important if they failed, to EA?)