Thanks for the post! I share much of the concerns you raise, particularly your conclusion that benefits of AI will not be distributed equitably through natural market mechanisms.
There will still exist a sizable gap between the development of these systems and their diffusion into the broader economy, but this gap will be on the order of years, not decades.
I am curious about why you think this. And by “the broader economy” are you talking about the global economy or only the US? I don’t have any firm views on speed of diffusion but I find decades plausible, at least when it comes to the global economy. Especially if diffusion involves widespread deployment of robotics.
Unlike the smartphone or the internet, the tools to distribute AI technology already exist—a new version of ChatGPT can be instantly accessed by all individuals with internet access today.
As a result, I’m of the opinion that cognitive labor automation (e.g. anything that a “remote worker” can do) will see diffusion on the order of years, not decades.
Certainly robotics and manual labor diffusion could take decades because it will take a long time for the marginal cost of a robot to fall below that of a person in a developing country.
Thanks for the post! I share much of the concerns you raise, particularly your conclusion that benefits of AI will not be distributed equitably through natural market mechanisms.
I am curious about why you think this. And by “the broader economy” are you talking about the global economy or only the US? I don’t have any firm views on speed of diffusion but I find decades plausible, at least when it comes to the global economy. Especially if diffusion involves widespread deployment of robotics.
Unlike the smartphone or the internet, the tools to distribute AI technology already exist—a new version of ChatGPT can be instantly accessed by all individuals with internet access today.
As a result, I’m of the opinion that cognitive labor automation (e.g. anything that a “remote worker” can do) will see diffusion on the order of years, not decades.
Certainly robotics and manual labor diffusion could take decades because it will take a long time for the marginal cost of a robot to fall below that of a person in a developing country.