Unlike the smartphone or the internet, the tools to distribute AI technology already exist—a new version of ChatGPT can be instantly accessed by all individuals with internet access today.
As a result, I’m of the opinion that cognitive labor automation (e.g. anything that a “remote worker” can do) will see diffusion on the order of years, not decades.
Certainly robotics and manual labor diffusion could take decades because it will take a long time for the marginal cost of a robot to fall below that of a person in a developing country.
Unlike the smartphone or the internet, the tools to distribute AI technology already exist—a new version of ChatGPT can be instantly accessed by all individuals with internet access today.
As a result, I’m of the opinion that cognitive labor automation (e.g. anything that a “remote worker” can do) will see diffusion on the order of years, not decades.
Certainly robotics and manual labor diffusion could take decades because it will take a long time for the marginal cost of a robot to fall below that of a person in a developing country.