So I do think that it is a vocal minority in EA and LW that have median timelines before 2030.
Now we have some data on AGI timelines for EA (though it was only 34 responses, so of course there could be large sample bias): about 15% expect it by 2030 or sooner.
But 47% (16 out of 34) put their median year no later than 2032 and 68% (23 out of 34) put their median year no later than 2035, so how significant a finding this is depends how much you care about those extra 2-5 years, I guess.
Only 12% (4 out of 34) of respondents to the poll put their median year after 2050. So, overall, respondents overwhelmingly see relatively near-term AGI (within 25 years) as at least 50% likely.
Quoting myself:
Now we have some data on AGI timelines for EA (though it was only 34 responses, so of course there could be large sample bias): about 15% expect it by 2030 or sooner.
But 47% (16 out of 34) put their median year no later than 2032 and 68% (23 out of 34) put their median year no later than 2035, so how significant a finding this is depends how much you care about those extra 2-5 years, I guess.
Only 12% (4 out of 34) of respondents to the poll put their median year after 2050. So, overall, respondents overwhelmingly see relatively near-term AGI (within 25 years) as at least 50% likely.