I think finding out the true state of play here is really important. What signs would we look for a sign of EA movements health that follow the 3 stages you suggested above? Perhaps the rate of sign-ups to the GWWC pledge, or total EAG applications, or people signing up to EA virtual courses? Funding might be easier to track, but the numbers are always going to be skewed by Open Philanthropy, and I don’t think that Dustin and Cari are going to go anywhere soon (which might update you slightly toward EA robustness?).
I guess there might be more failure modes than EA ‘collapse’, though we ought to watch out for it. This could be a bit of a retrenchment for the movement, where hopefully we can learn from our mistakes, improve institutions, and keep doing good in 2023 and beyond.
I’d suggest unrelenting, near-uniform public hatred as a potential failure mode (which != having many enemies or being merely unpopular). Some degree of other actors being willing to cooperate can be awfully important to effectiveness.
I think finding out the true state of play here is really important. What signs would we look for a sign of EA movements health that follow the 3 stages you suggested above? Perhaps the rate of sign-ups to the GWWC pledge, or total EAG applications, or people signing up to EA virtual courses? Funding might be easier to track, but the numbers are always going to be skewed by Open Philanthropy, and I don’t think that Dustin and Cari are going to go anywhere soon (which might update you slightly toward EA robustness?).
I guess there might be more failure modes than EA ‘collapse’, though we ought to watch out for it. This could be a bit of a retrenchment for the movement, where hopefully we can learn from our mistakes, improve institutions, and keep doing good in 2023 and beyond.
I’d suggest unrelenting, near-uniform public hatred as a potential failure mode (which != having many enemies or being merely unpopular). Some degree of other actors being willing to cooperate can be awfully important to effectiveness.