In The Precipice Toby Ord gives estimated chances of various existential risks happening within the next 100 years. It’d be cool if we could get estimates from Metaculus as well, although it may be impossible to implement, as Tachyons would only be awarded when the world doesn’t blow up.
In The Precipice Toby Ord gives estimated chances of various existential risks happening within the next 100 years. It’d be cool if we could get estimates from Metaculus as well, although it may be impossible to implement, as Tachyons would only be awarded when the world doesn’t blow up.
Well, there’s the Ragnarök question series, which seems to fit what you’re looking for.