Good point, I agree that ideally that would be the case, but my impression (from the outside) is that OP is somewhat capacity-constrained, especially for technical AI grantmaking? Which I think would mean if non-OP people feel like they can make useful grants now that could still be more valuable given the likelihood that OP scales up and gets more AI grantmaking in coming years. But all that is speculation, I haven’t thought carefully about the value of donations over time, beyond deciding to not save all my donations for later for me personally.
My point holds across all types of spending. OP’s spending on expanding their team should be optimised to ensure the marginal cost-effectiveness of their grants matches that of their internal spending, and that both do not vary across time. I do not know whether OP is striking the right balance. However, I think one is implicitly claiming that OP is making some wrong decisions if one expects the marginal cost-effectiveness of OP’s AI safety grants to decrease across time.
I think it is more likely that people do not take my bet because they do not actually believe in short AI timelines.
Good point, I agree that ideally that would be the case, but my impression (from the outside) is that OP is somewhat capacity-constrained, especially for technical AI grantmaking? Which I think would mean if non-OP people feel like they can make useful grants now that could still be more valuable given the likelihood that OP scales up and gets more AI grantmaking in coming years. But all that is speculation, I haven’t thought carefully about the value of donations over time, beyond deciding to not save all my donations for later for me personally.
My point holds across all types of spending. OP’s spending on expanding their team should be optimised to ensure the marginal cost-effectiveness of their grants matches that of their internal spending, and that both do not vary across time. I do not know whether OP is striking the right balance. However, I think one is implicitly claiming that OP is making some wrong decisions if one expects the marginal cost-effectiveness of OP’s AI safety grants to decrease across time.
I think it is more likely that people do not take my bet because they do not actually believe in short AI timelines.