My point holds across all types of spending. OP’s spending on expanding their team should be optimised to ensure the marginal cost-effectiveness of their grants matches that of their internal spending, and that both do not vary across time. I do not know whether OP is striking the right balance. However, I think one is implicitly claiming that OP is making some wrong decisions if one expects the marginal cost-effectiveness of OP’s AI safety grants to decrease across time.
I think it is more likely that people do not take my bet because they do not actually believe in short AI timelines.
My point holds across all types of spending. OP’s spending on expanding their team should be optimised to ensure the marginal cost-effectiveness of their grants matches that of their internal spending, and that both do not vary across time. I do not know whether OP is striking the right balance. However, I think one is implicitly claiming that OP is making some wrong decisions if one expects the marginal cost-effectiveness of OP’s AI safety grants to decrease across time.
I think it is more likely that people do not take my bet because they do not actually believe in short AI timelines.