Your bet proposal talks about the Metaculus question “resolving non-ambiguously”. Since the question is about the duration of time between the “weak AGI” and “superintelligent AI”, it is possible that it cannot be resolved “non-ambiguously” due to the definition of weak AGI being ambiguous even if SAI is invented. This might discourage people who believe in short SAI timelines from accepting the bet.
The bet is neutral for both parties if the Metaculus’ question resolves ambiguously. In this case, no transfer of money would happen. A higher probability of the question resolving ambiguously decreases the expected value of the bet for both parties, but this could be mitigated by increasing the potential benefits.
Your bet proposal talks about the Metaculus question “resolving non-ambiguously”. Since the question is about the duration of time between the “weak AGI” and “superintelligent AI”, it is possible that it cannot be resolved “non-ambiguously” due to the definition of weak AGI being ambiguous even if SAI is invented. This might discourage people who believe in short SAI timelines from accepting the bet.
The bet is neutral for both parties if the Metaculus’ question resolves ambiguously. In this case, no transfer of money would happen. A higher probability of the question resolving ambiguously decreases the expected value of the bet for both parties, but this could be mitigated by increasing the potential benefits.