My bet does not depend on Metaculusâ definition of âweak AGIâ. I rely on Metaculusâ definition of SAI given in a question about the time from âweak AGIâ until SAI. However, the bet I suggested is just about the date of SAI.
Your bet proposal talks about the Metaculus question âresolving non-ambiguouslyâ. Since the question is about the duration of time between the âweak AGIâ and âsuperintelligent AIâ, it is possible that it cannot be resolved ânon-ambiguouslyâ due to the definition of weak AGI being ambiguous even if SAI is invented. This might discourage people who believe in short SAI timelines from accepting the bet.
The bet is neutral for both parties if the Metaculusâ question resolves ambiguously. In this case, no transfer of money would happen. A higher probability of the question resolving ambiguously decreases the expected value of the bet for both parties, but this could be mitigated by increasing the potential benefits.
My bet does not depend on Metaculusâ definition of âweak AGIâ. I rely on Metaculusâ definition of SAI given in a question about the time from âweak AGIâ until SAI. However, the bet I suggested is just about the date of SAI.
Your bet proposal talks about the Metaculus question âresolving non-ambiguouslyâ. Since the question is about the duration of time between the âweak AGIâ and âsuperintelligent AIâ, it is possible that it cannot be resolved ânon-ambiguouslyâ due to the definition of weak AGI being ambiguous even if SAI is invented. This might discourage people who believe in short SAI timelines from accepting the bet.
The bet is neutral for both parties if the Metaculusâ question resolves ambiguously. In this case, no transfer of money would happen. A higher probability of the question resolving ambiguously decreases the expected value of the bet for both parties, but this could be mitigated by increasing the potential benefits.