Mind if I re-frame this discussion? The relevant question here shouldn’t be a matter of beliefs, “is he a longtermist?”, it’s a matter of identity and identity strength. This isn’t to say beliefs aren’t important and knowing his wouldn’t be informative, but identity (at least to some considerable degree) precedes and predicts beliefs and behavior.
But I also don’t want to overemphasize particular labels, there are enough discernible positions out there that this isn’t very helpful. Especially for individuals with some expertise, in positions of authority who may be reluctant to carelessly endorse particular groups.
Accepting this, here’s some of what we could look into:
Amount of positive socialization with EAs and affiliates (Jason Matheny’s FLI history is notable, how long and involved was this position?)
Amount of out-group derogation—if he’s positioned against our out-group, this may indicate or induce sympathy. Mentioning X-risk seriously once did this, may still to a degree.
Effect of role identities (Matheny apparently did malaria work before EA. Not sure what tech industry or Google CEO entails, defensiveness or maybe self-importance(?), “yeah me quoting the Bhagavad Gita would sound good!”)
Identities are correlated; what are his political, religious and cultural identities?
Mind if I re-frame this discussion? The relevant question here shouldn’t be a matter of beliefs, “is he a longtermist?”, it’s a matter of identity and identity strength. This isn’t to say beliefs aren’t important and knowing his wouldn’t be informative, but identity (at least to some considerable degree) precedes and predicts beliefs and behavior.
But I also don’t want to overemphasize particular labels, there are enough discernible positions out there that this isn’t very helpful. Especially for individuals with some expertise, in positions of authority who may be reluctant to carelessly endorse particular groups.
Accepting this, here’s some of what we could look into:
Amount of positive socialization with EAs and affiliates (Jason Matheny’s FLI history is notable, how long and involved was this position?)
Amount of out-group derogation—if he’s positioned against our out-group, this may indicate or induce sympathy. Mentioning X-risk seriously once did this, may still to a degree.
Effect of role identities (Matheny apparently did malaria work before EA. Not sure what tech industry or Google CEO entails, defensiveness or maybe self-importance(?), “yeah me quoting the Bhagavad Gita would sound good!”)
Identities are correlated; what are his political, religious and cultural identities?
I agree that identity and identity strength are important variables for collective guilt assignment.
That said, I think the case for JM is substantially stronger than the case for Schimdt, which we were previously talking about upthread.