Unfortunately, I think the uncertainty we all face goes even deeper. There’s no EA sorting hat, and there’s also no one who can tell you whether you really made the right call or had the kind of impact you wanted to have. No one will find you after your career, shake your hand and offer you an impact scorecard.
Maybe it’s a bit easier to figure this out, because you can look at the work you’ve done, estimate some counterfactuals and weigh it up yourself, but I also see some people saying things like “I got the EA-aligned job someone recommended, so hooray I’m now having a bunch of impact”. Maybe! But hard to say, and I recommend getting comfortable with that uncertainty.
Yeah absolutely. There’s so much noise and chaos and uncertainty in the world, I sometimes like the (arguably depressing) frame that the EA project is trying to increase your chance of doing good from 51% to 52%, and that this is totally worth fighting for, but also, just being clear on how hard it is to know the long term effects of any action.
Well said!
Unfortunately, I think the uncertainty we all face goes even deeper. There’s no EA sorting hat, and there’s also no one who can tell you whether you really made the right call or had the kind of impact you wanted to have. No one will find you after your career, shake your hand and offer you an impact scorecard.
Maybe it’s a bit easier to figure this out, because you can look at the work you’ve done, estimate some counterfactuals and weigh it up yourself, but I also see some people saying things like “I got the EA-aligned job someone recommended, so hooray I’m now having a bunch of impact”. Maybe! But hard to say, and I recommend getting comfortable with that uncertainty.
Yeah absolutely. There’s so much noise and chaos and uncertainty in the world, I sometimes like the (arguably depressing) frame that the EA project is trying to increase your chance of doing good from 51% to 52%, and that this is totally worth fighting for, but also, just being clear on how hard it is to know the long term effects of any action.