OllieBase

Karma: 6,327

OllieBase Jul 7, 2025, 11:21 AM
13 points
3 ∶ 0
in reply to: Benevolent_Rain’s comment on: Ulrik Horn’s Quick takes
It’s not clear that EA funding relies on Facebook/Meta much anymore. The original tweet is deleted, and this post is 3 years old but Holden wrote of Cari and Dustin’s wealth:
I also note that META stock is not as large a part of their portfolio as some seem to assume
You could argue Facebook/Meta is what made Dustin wealthy originally, but probably not correct to say that EA funding “deeply relies” on Meta today.

OllieBase Jul 7, 2025, 9:32 AM
21 points
4 ∶ 0
in reply to: saulius’s comment on: saulius’s Shortform
Yep, I think this is right, but we don’t totally rely on these kinds of surveys!
We also conduct follow-up surveys to check what actually happens a few months after each event and unsurprisingly, you do see intentions and projects dissipate (as well as many materialising). A problem we face is that these surveys have much lower response rates.
Other more reliable evidence about the impact of EAG comes from surveys which ask people how they found impactful work (e.g., the EA Survey, Open Phil’s surveys), and EAG is cited a lot. We’ll usually turn to this kind of evidence to think about our impact, though end-of-event feedback surveys are useful for feedback about content, venue, catering, attendee interactions etc. and you can also do things like discounting reported impact in end-of-event surveys using follow-up survey data.

OllieBase Jul 4, 2025, 8:46 AM
6 points
1 ∶ 0
in reply to: NickLaing’s comment on: NickLaing’s Quick takes
I’m reading “OK” as “morally permissible” rather than “not harmful”. E.g., I think it’s also “OK” to eat meat, even though I think it’s causing harm.
(Not saying you should clarify the poll, it’s clear enough and will probably produce interesting results either way!)

OllieBase Jun 18, 2025, 4:44 PM
7 points
3 ∶ 0
on: The “No Duty → No Good” fallacy
I thought this was a great post, thanks for sharing! I think you’re unusually productive at identifying important insights in ethics and philosophy, please keep it up!

OllieBase Jun 13, 2025, 11:59 AM
11 points
3 ∶ 0
on: My P(doom) is 2.76%. Here’s Why.
I strongly upvoted this. I don’t endorse all your claims, but this is really easy to engage with, a very important topic and I admire how you charitably worked within the framework Shapira offered while ending up in a very different place.

OllieBase Jun 6, 2025, 12:12 PM
3 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: JordanStone’s comment on: JordanStone’s Quick takes
Thanks. In the original quick take, you wrote “thousands of independent and technologically advanced colonies”, but here you write “hundreds of millions”.

If you think there’s a 1 in 10,000 or 1 in a million chance of any independent and technologically advanced colony creating astronomical suffering, it matters if there are thousands or millions of colonies. Maybe you think it’s more like 1 in 100, and then thousands (or more) would make it extremely likely.

OllieBase Jun 6, 2025, 9:20 AM
2 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: JordanStone’s comment on: JordanStone’s Quick takes
probably near 100% if digital sentience is possible… it only takes one

Can you expand on this? I guess the stipulation of thousands of advanced colonies does some of the work here, but this still seems overconfident to me given how little we understand about digital sentience.

OllieBase May 22, 2025, 8:03 AM
8 points
2 ∶ 0
on: The stakes of AI moral status
I found this moving and enlightening, thanks for sharing. Looking forward to the series!

OllieBase May 15, 2025, 4:01 PM
5 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: James Herbert’s comment on: Uni Groups Team’s Quick takes
- EAGx undergraduate acceptance rate across 2024 and 2025 = ~82%
- EAGx first-timer undergraduate acceptance rate across 2024 and 2025 = ~76%
Obvious caveat that if we tell lots of people that the acceptance rate is high, we might attract more people without any context on EA and the rate would go down.
(I’ve not closely checked the data)

OllieBase May 8, 2025, 1:36 PM
4 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: JWS 🔸’s comment on: 5 Historical Case Studies for an EA in Decline
I’d feel pretty gaslit if someone said EA was going swimmingly and unaffected by the tribulations of the last couple of years, perhaps less so if they think there’s been a bounce back after an initial decline but, you know, I’d want to see the data for that.
I agree with this fwiw, that seems fair

OllieBase May 8, 2025, 11:44 AM
4 points
5 ∶ 0
in reply to: JWS 🔸’s comment on: 5 Historical Case Studies for an EA in Decline
Thanks for adding more here :) I think that evidence is more persuasive, though still reads a little vibe-y and data-free, and involves reading intention into some actions that might not be there.

OllieBase May 8, 2025, 8:43 AM
29 points
15 ∶ 4
on: 5 Historical Case Studies for an EA in Decline
Ever since November 2022, the EA movement has only seemed to know criticism and scandal. Some have even gone so far to declare that EA is dead or dying,^[1] or no longer worth standing behind,^[2] or otherwise disassociate themselves from the movement even if outside observers would clearly identify them as being ‘EA’.^[3] This negative environment that EA finds itself in is, I think, indicative of its state as a social movement in decline.
I don’t think the claim “EA is in decline” is well-defended in this post. You link to a few naysayers here, but I don’t think that’s good evidence. “EA is in decline” is also self-fulfilling—it might decline if everyone’s saying it’s declining—so I expect some people say this because they want it to happen, not because they’ve reviewed the evidence and have concluded this is what’s happening.
Colleagues of mine can pull together more evidence against, but as two examples that are salient to me:
- EA Global London 2025 is on track to be the biggest EA conference ever.
- We expect to welcome more people to EA events (EAG, EAGx, EA Summits) this year than ever before.
I find that hard to square with “EA is in decline”. To be clear, I think the claim might be true, but it’s an important enough question that it deserves some more thoughtful study and data, rather than vibes on Twitter.

OllieBase Apr 28, 2025, 8:30 PM
17 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Kelsey Piper’s comment on: Reflections on the $5 Minimum Donation Barrier on the Giving What We Can Platform — A Student Perspective from a Lower-Income Country.
I can pass this request on to the EA Nigeria team

OllieBase Apr 28, 2025, 10:06 AM
35 points
24 ∶ 1
on: Reflections on the $5 Minimum Donation Barrier on the Giving What We Can Platform — A Student Perspective from a Lower-Income Country.
I don’t know why GWWC has this limit so can’t comment on the request here but I think it’s really cool that you’re considering donating a significant portion of your monthly income to effective charities despite not earning much (especially compared to the global population). That’s a selfless and inspiring act.

P.S. I hope you’ll attend EAGxNigeria!

The CEA Events Team is Hiring for Three Program Lead Positions

OllieBaseApr 15, 2025, 4:23 PM

49 points

0 comments3 min readEA link

OllieBase Apr 7, 2025, 4:37 PM
64 points
24 ∶ 1
in reply to: William_MacAskill’s comment on: William_MacAskill’s Shortform
- (I remember in the early days of 80,000 Hours, we spent a whole day hosting an UHNW. He ultimately gave £5000. The week afterwards, a one-hour call with Julia Wise—a social worker at the time—resulted in a larger donation.)
I learn about new ways that Julia had a significant impact on this community every few months, and it never ceases to give me a sense of awe and appreciation for her selflessness. EA would not be what it is today without Julia.

OllieBase Apr 1, 2025, 8:58 AM
2 points
0 ∶ 0
on: We’re not prepared for an AI market crash
Just a heads up that this was posted on April Fool’s day, but it seems like a serious post. You might want to add a quick disclaimer at the top for today :)

OllieBase Mar 31, 2025, 3:09 PM
16 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Oscar Sykes’s comment on: Stewardship: CEA’s 2025-26 strategy to reach and raise EA’s ceiling
We (the CEA Events Team) recently posted about how we cut costs for EA Global last year. That’s a big contributing factor, and involved hiring someone (a production associate) to help us cut overall costs.

OllieBase Mar 20, 2025, 8:44 AM
8 points
2 ∶ 0
in reply to: jackva’s comment on: jackva’s Quick takes
It seems like you’re making a few slightly different points:
1. There are much more pressing things to discuss than this question.
2. This question will alienate people and harm the EA brand because it’s too philosophical/weird.
3. The fact that the EA Forum team chose this question given the circumstances will alienate people (kind of a mix between 1 and 2).
I’m sympathetic to 1, but disagree with 2 and 3 for the reasons I outlined in my first comment.

OllieBase Mar 19, 2025, 4:24 PM
21 points
6 ∶ 0
in reply to: jackva’s comment on: jackva’s Quick takes
I disagree that we should avoid discussing topics so as to avoid putting people off this community.^[1]
- I think some of EA’s greatest contributions come from being willing to voice, discuss and seriously tackle questions that seemed weird or out of touch at the time (e.g. AI safety). If we couldn’t do that, and instead remained within the overton window, I think we lose a lot of the value of taking EA principles seriously.
- If someone finds the discussion of extinction or incredibly good/bad futures offputting, this community likely isn’t for them. That happens a lot!
1. ^
  Perhaps for some distasteful-to-almost-everyone topics, but this topic doesn’t seem like that at all.

OllieBase

The CEA Events Team is Hiring for Three Pro­gram Lead Positions

The CEA Events Team is Hiring for Three Program Lead Positions