I was going to suggest some forecasts but I struggle to think of new ones. Feel free to message me. The key question for me is “what outcomes are you concerned about and given the AUKUS security pact has already happened what flexibility is there to be concerned about?” Eg it’s already happened, what’s to brief about rather than current risk on those issues.
As for current forecasts, there are questions on nuclear war and Taiwan. You can search them here https://metaforecast.org/
Feel free to message me if I can be of more use. Thanks for what you do
Thanks Nathan. In terms of briefing MPs, I think my main aim is to shift the debate towards the most important aspects of the deal, from a longer-term and bigger scale perspective. E.g. when Parliament debates AUKUS, it would be a shame if the debate entirely focuses on UK job opportunities from the deal, or French anger, when there are bigger issues of nuclear warfare at play. I guess the theory of change is that this improves the standard of debate which helps politicians make better defence capability decisions in the future.
I was going to suggest some forecasts but I struggle to think of new ones. Feel free to message me. The key question for me is “what outcomes are you concerned about and given the AUKUS security pact has already happened what flexibility is there to be concerned about?” Eg it’s already happened, what’s to brief about rather than current risk on those issues.
As for current forecasts, there are questions on nuclear war and Taiwan. You can search them here https://metaforecast.org/
Feel free to message me if I can be of more use. Thanks for what you do
Thanks Nathan. In terms of briefing MPs, I think my main aim is to shift the debate towards the most important aspects of the deal, from a longer-term and bigger scale perspective. E.g. when Parliament debates AUKUS, it would be a shame if the debate entirely focuses on UK job opportunities from the deal, or French anger, when there are bigger issues of nuclear warfare at play. I guess the theory of change is that this improves the standard of debate which helps politicians make better defence capability decisions in the future.