Ok, that makes sense. I’d guess butterfly effects would be neutral in the median difference. The same could be the case for indirect effects on wild animals and the far future, although I’d say it’s highly ambiguous (imprecise probabilities) and something to be clueless about, and not precisely neutral about.
Would you say you care about the overall distribution of differences, too, and not just the median and the EV?
Ok, that makes sense. I’d guess butterfly effects would be neutral in the median difference. The same could be the case for indirect effects on wild animals and the far future, although I’d say it’s highly ambiguous (imprecise probabilities) and something to be clueless about, and not precisely neutral about.
Would you say you care about the overall distribution of differences, too, and not just the median and the EV?
Probably, but not sure! Yeah, the above is definitely ignoring cluelessness considerations, on which I don’t have any particularly strong opinion.