I have to wonder whether EAs voting on the Labour leadership is positive in expectation. A priori, I would have expected it would be, but to my surprise, the EAs I know personally whose views on Labour politics I also know have not (in my view) had generally better views, been more thoughtful or more informed than the average Labour party members (I have been a Labour party member for some years). Nor have their substantive views seemed better to me, though of course this is more controversial (and this fact leads me to reduce my confidence in my own views considerably). Notably, the above is drawing from a reference class of people who were already quite engaged with Labour politics, things may be different (and perhaps worse) for the class of EAs who were not Labour party members, but who were persuaded their vote would be valuable by a forum post.
It also seems possible that votes by EAs generally being positive in expectation holds true for general elections, where choices are more stark and there is generally more consensus among EAs, and their votes are being compared against a wider reference class, but does not hold for more select votes about more nuanced issues, comparing against groups of relatively engaged and informed voters.
I have to wonder whether EAs voting on the Labour leadership is positive in expectation. A priori, I would have expected it would be, but to my surprise, the EAs I know personally whose views on Labour politics I also know have not (in my view) had generally better views, been more thoughtful or more informed than the average Labour party members (I have been a Labour party member for some years). Nor have their substantive views seemed better to me, though of course this is more controversial (and this fact leads me to reduce my confidence in my own views considerably). Notably, the above is drawing from a reference class of people who were already quite engaged with Labour politics, things may be different (and perhaps worse) for the class of EAs who were not Labour party members, but who were persuaded their vote would be valuable by a forum post.
It also seems possible that votes by EAs generally being positive in expectation holds true for general elections, where choices are more stark and there is generally more consensus among EAs, and their votes are being compared against a wider reference class, but does not hold for more select votes about more nuanced issues, comparing against groups of relatively engaged and informed voters.