Some background notes that may be relevant: When I first heard about the UFO topic in a more serious way (I think when Sam Harris first talked about it, ~2017-2018?), I searched for debunkings and came upon Mick West’s debunking videos. I found them convincing and in effect I dismissed the topic for years, feeling vindicated in my pre-existing position of total dismissal toward the topic (until I read Hanson’s post “My awkward inference” in late April 2023 and decided to take a deeper look, as described at the outset of this post).
Second, West has made various debunking videos that are IMO clearly on point, in the sense of successfully explaining some allegedly anomalous footage in mundane terms. Such debunkings are helpful and represent one of the ways in which his presence in the discussion is valuable, IMO.
Third, I’ve heard various interviews with Mick West, including with people who have different perspectives than him, and in those interviews he tends to come across as a lot more open-minded and cautious than how he comes across in his debunking videos, where he often seems (to me) more animated by motivated reasoning (like: “It must be this thing”). This is perhaps not surprising, since a debunking video sort of does have a preconceived aim, namely to debunk, which is not quite the same as neutrally analyzing. (West himself seems to make some related concessions here.) So seeing him in such interviews and conversations can IMO help give a more balanced sense of Mick West’s thinking (and also of how he’s a lot more friendly and good-natured than how he can come across in places like Twitter, but maybe that’s a truism at this point :).
Moving on to the more substantive side of things. One problem, in my view, is that West sometimes gives explanations that don’t seem consistent with the evidence that surrounds the footage in question, which is sometimes more noteworthy. For example, in the Nimitz case, he attempts to debunk the FLIR footage (shot by Chad Underwood), but even if that debunking were successful, he seems to have no plausible explanation for the data reported by pilots such as Alex Dietrich and David Fravor (two of the four pilots who saw the “tic-tac” object directly), or radar experts such as Kevin Day and Gary Voorhis. I think it would be convenient if we could just close our eyes and ears and ignore what these people have reported, but that doesn’t seem to me like good epistemic practice (even though it makes sense to be skeptical, of course).
The same goes for the so-called Gimbal video (which, FWIW, I don’t have any particular take on myself). For instance, he seems to ignore that one of the pilots says “There’s a whole fleet of them, look on the SA [Situational Awareness; a kind of display that monitors surroundings, AFAIU]”. That would at least seem to pose a problem for his proposed explanation of the footage. (For some additional criticism/another perspective on Gimbal in particular, see e.g. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.08773)
In general, I think West is valuable for the broader discussion, but I don’t think his commentary gives us reason to dismiss the subject (as I once did). I think there’s good reason to take a closer look at the evidence, and I would encourage people to do so (I suspect that this is the biggest bottleneck preventing people from taking the issue seriously: actually looking at the evidence).
Thanks for asking :)
Some background notes that may be relevant: When I first heard about the UFO topic in a more serious way (I think when Sam Harris first talked about it, ~2017-2018?), I searched for debunkings and came upon Mick West’s debunking videos. I found them convincing and in effect I dismissed the topic for years, feeling vindicated in my pre-existing position of total dismissal toward the topic (until I read Hanson’s post “My awkward inference” in late April 2023 and decided to take a deeper look, as described at the outset of this post).
Second, West has made various debunking videos that are IMO clearly on point, in the sense of successfully explaining some allegedly anomalous footage in mundane terms. Such debunkings are helpful and represent one of the ways in which his presence in the discussion is valuable, IMO.
Third, I’ve heard various interviews with Mick West, including with people who have different perspectives than him, and in those interviews he tends to come across as a lot more open-minded and cautious than how he comes across in his debunking videos, where he often seems (to me) more animated by motivated reasoning (like: “It must be this thing”). This is perhaps not surprising, since a debunking video sort of does have a preconceived aim, namely to debunk, which is not quite the same as neutrally analyzing. (West himself seems to make some related concessions here.) So seeing him in such interviews and conversations can IMO help give a more balanced sense of Mick West’s thinking (and also of how he’s a lot more friendly and good-natured than how he can come across in places like Twitter, but maybe that’s a truism at this point :).
Moving on to the more substantive side of things. One problem, in my view, is that West sometimes gives explanations that don’t seem consistent with the evidence that surrounds the footage in question, which is sometimes more noteworthy. For example, in the Nimitz case, he attempts to debunk the FLIR footage (shot by Chad Underwood), but even if that debunking were successful, he seems to have no plausible explanation for the data reported by pilots such as Alex Dietrich and David Fravor (two of the four pilots who saw the “tic-tac” object directly), or radar experts such as Kevin Day and Gary Voorhis. I think it would be convenient if we could just close our eyes and ears and ignore what these people have reported, but that doesn’t seem to me like good epistemic practice (even though it makes sense to be skeptical, of course).
The same goes for the so-called Gimbal video (which, FWIW, I don’t have any particular take on myself). For instance, he seems to ignore that one of the pilots says “There’s a whole fleet of them, look on the SA [Situational Awareness; a kind of display that monitors surroundings, AFAIU]”. That would at least seem to pose a problem for his proposed explanation of the footage. (For some additional criticism/another perspective on Gimbal in particular, see e.g. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.08773)
In general, I think West is valuable for the broader discussion, but I don’t think his commentary gives us reason to dismiss the subject (as I once did). I think there’s good reason to take a closer look at the evidence, and I would encourage people to do so (I suspect that this is the biggest bottleneck preventing people from taking the issue seriously: actually looking at the evidence).
This is a super helpful response, thanks!