I think that UFOs are really a wildcard in x-risk research. 1.Even if UFOs don’t have any serious substance behind them, the fact that many serious military people and even presidents believed in them, should update our prior about human irrationality and therefore increase our expectation that nuclear risks and AI risks will be mismanaged.
2.If UFOs have an interesting, but not world-model-shattering explanation, e.g. they are a form of ball lightings, this opens a possibility of creating new weapons after their nature will be learned.
3. If their explanation is world-model-shattering, all our expectations about x-risks are wrong. World-model-shattering explanations are not only classical aliens.
They can be: -glitches and viruses in the matrix;
-space-faring animals consisting from exotic fields;
-clouds of nanobots from already extinct civilizations.
-malfunctioning berserks-robots
-elaborated lies from cold war era similar to other memetic mind attacks like “red mercury” or number radio stations.
I find your 1st point in contradiction to your later points. Your first point seems to say that taking them seriously implies a certain level of irrationality but your later points imply that you yourself take them seriously, including some more out -there explanations.
I think that UFOs are really a wildcard in x-risk research.
1.Even if UFOs don’t have any serious substance behind them, the fact that many serious military people and even presidents believed in them, should update our prior about human irrationality and therefore increase our expectation that nuclear risks and AI risks will be mismanaged.
2.If UFOs have an interesting, but not world-model-shattering explanation, e.g. they are a form of ball lightings, this opens a possibility of creating new weapons after their nature will be learned.
3. If their explanation is world-model-shattering, all our expectations about x-risks are wrong.
World-model-shattering explanations are not only classical aliens.
They can be:
-glitches and viruses in the matrix;
-space-faring animals consisting from exotic fields;
-clouds of nanobots from already extinct civilizations.
-malfunctioning berserks-robots
-elaborated lies from cold war era similar to other memetic mind attacks like “red mercury” or number radio stations.
I find your 1st point in contradiction to your later points. Your first point seems to say that taking them seriously implies a certain level of irrationality but your later points imply that you yourself take them seriously, including some more out -there explanations.