I would be most interested to think what seasoned animal rights campaigners think about this, but m not sure this take matces with the way social norms have changed in the past.
First I think it’s useful to turn to what evidence we have. Animal rights and climate change campaigners have shown that somewhat counter intuitively, more extreme beligerant activism moves the overton window and actually makes it easier for mistake campaigners. There is a post on the forum and a talk at EA Nordic about this I can’t find right now.
“So, what do you do when companies are making progress, but not enough? I’m not sure, but it seems like a careful balance of carrots and sticks.”
On the basis of what evidence we have, I would more lean towards piling on more both more sticks and more carrots. I think the risk of AI lab heads going to ground publicly is close to zero. They don’t want to lose the control they have of the discourse they have right now. If one goes to ground, others will take over the public sphere anyway.
One slightly more extreme organisation can call out the hypocrisy of AI leaders not taking publicly about their pdoom, while another org can praise then for the speaking out they are doing. Sticks and carrots.
I’m not sure there can ever be “too much pressure” put on that would cause Negative outcomes, but I could be wrong, it might help if you can point out a historical example. I think small victories can be followed by even more pressure.
Mercy for animals would probably be ok with commending Popeyes one day for making progress then haranguing then again the next day to do even better, but I could be wrong.
As a side note, I feel like we in the EA community might be at primary school level sometimes when discussing advocacy and activism. I would love to hear the take of some expert seasoned activists about where they think AI policy work and advocacy sure go.
I think the lesson we can draw from climate and animal rights that you mention—the radical flank effect—shows that extreme actions concerning an issue in general might make incremental change more palatable to the public. But I don’t think it shows that extreme action attacking incremental change makes that particular incremental change more likely.
If I had to guess, the analogue to this in the animal activist world would be groups like PETA raising awareness about the “scam” that is cage-free. I don’t think there’s any reason to think this has increased the likelihood of cage-free reforms taking place — in fact, my experience from advocating for cage-free tells me that it just worsened social myths that the reform was meaningless despite evidence showing it reduced total hours spent suffering by nearly 50%.
So, I would like to see an activist ecosystem where there are different groups with different tactics—and some who maybe never offer carrots. But directing the stick to incremental improvements seems to have gone badly in past movements, and I wouldn’t want to see the same mistake made here.
Thanks Tyler nice job explaining, I think I’ve changed my mind on the specific case of attacking a small positive incremental change. Like you I struggle to see how that’s helpful. Better to praise the incremental change (or say nothing) then push harder.
Have retracted my previous comment.
I’m heartened as well that you have had experience in animal campaigns.
I would be most interested to think what seasoned animal rights campaigners think about this, but m not sure this take matces with the way social norms have changed in the past.
First I think it’s useful to turn to what evidence we have. Animal rights and climate change campaigners have shown that somewhat counter intuitively, more extreme beligerant activism moves the overton window and actually makes it easier for mistake campaigners. There is a post on the forum and a talk at EA Nordic about this I can’t find right now.
“So, what do you do when companies are making progress, but not enough? I’m not sure, but it seems like a careful balance of carrots and sticks.”
On the basis of what evidence we have, I would more lean towards piling on more both more sticks and more carrots. I think the risk of AI lab heads going to ground publicly is close to zero. They don’t want to lose the control they have of the discourse they have right now. If one goes to ground, others will take over the public sphere anyway.
One slightly more extreme organisation can call out the hypocrisy of AI leaders not taking publicly about their pdoom, while another org can praise then for the speaking out they are doing. Sticks and carrots.
I’m not sure there can ever be “too much pressure” put on that would cause Negative outcomes, but I could be wrong, it might help if you can point out a historical example. I think small victories can be followed by even more pressure.
Mercy for animals would probably be ok with commending Popeyes one day for making progress then haranguing then again the next day to do even better, but I could be wrong.
As a side note, I feel like we in the EA community might be at primary school level sometimes when discussing advocacy and activism. I would love to hear the take of some expert seasoned activists about where they think AI policy work and advocacy sure go.
I think the lesson we can draw from climate and animal rights that you mention—the radical flank effect—shows that extreme actions concerning an issue in general might make incremental change more palatable to the public. But I don’t think it shows that extreme action attacking incremental change makes that particular incremental change more likely.
If I had to guess, the analogue to this in the animal activist world would be groups like PETA raising awareness about the “scam” that is cage-free. I don’t think there’s any reason to think this has increased the likelihood of cage-free reforms taking place — in fact, my experience from advocating for cage-free tells me that it just worsened social myths that the reform was meaningless despite evidence showing it reduced total hours spent suffering by nearly 50%.
So, I would like to see an activist ecosystem where there are different groups with different tactics—and some who maybe never offer carrots. But directing the stick to incremental improvements seems to have gone badly in past movements, and I wouldn’t want to see the same mistake made here.
Thanks Tyler nice job explaining, I think I’ve changed my mind on the specific case of attacking a small positive incremental change. Like you I struggle to see how that’s helpful. Better to praise the incremental change (or say nothing) then push harder.
Have retracted my previous comment.
I’m heartened as well that you have had experience in animal campaigns.