This was fascinating. Thanks so much for writing it, and for including your refactored model for public viewing. I’m especially looking forward to the future post on uncertainty analysis.
As of now, I’m fairly optimistic about the potential of recent projects like Squiggle and Causal to help take uncertainty analysis beyond the pessimistic-to-optimistic interval presented in some of GiveWell’s older CEAs. I’d be interested in learning, from your future post, about the tools that health economists currently use to analyse uncertainty, and your views on how EAs should carry out uncertainty analysis going forward.
This was fascinating. Thanks so much for writing it, and for including your refactored model for public viewing. I’m especially looking forward to the future post on uncertainty analysis.
As of now, I’m fairly optimistic about the potential of recent projects like Squiggle and Causal to help take uncertainty analysis beyond the pessimistic-to-optimistic interval presented in some of GiveWell’s older CEAs. I’d be interested in learning, from your future post, about the tools that health economists currently use to analyse uncertainty, and your views on how EAs should carry out uncertainty analysis going forward.