Thanks for doing this (I’ve skimmed, hope to read carefully). I’ve been trying to encourage GW a bit in this direction myself, particularly more careful data and calculation processes and pipelines, and using of Monte-Carlo explicit uncertainty modeling. There may be some inertia issues at GW that need some encouragement to get past.
On the explicit uncertainty, I’m trying to keep track of and encourage projects HERE in this Gitbook. The work of Sam Nolan (QURI) and Joe; McGuire (HLI) seem particular relevant.
I’ll integrate your essay/refactoring here into that, and would love your involvement in that gitbook/project if you are interested. (Let’s chat?)
Please do use the Refactor however you would like, although please also add enough of a disclaimer to keep the context from this essay that the Refactor is an academic exercise which tries to stay roughly true to GiveWell’s design philosophy and assumptions while improving architecture and calculation conventions. I don’t think as a standalone piece of modelling it is the cutting edge of what EA could aspire to, whereas Nolan / McGuire really do seem to be operating at that level.
But yes, really happy to contribute if I can be of any help—drop me a message!
Thanks for doing this (I’ve skimmed, hope to read carefully). I’ve been trying to encourage GW a bit in this direction myself, particularly more careful data and calculation processes and pipelines, and using of Monte-Carlo explicit uncertainty modeling. There may be some inertia issues at GW that need some encouragement to get past.
On the explicit uncertainty, I’m trying to keep track of and encourage projects HERE in this Gitbook. The work of Sam Nolan (QURI) and Joe; McGuire (HLI) seem particular relevant.
I’ll integrate your essay/refactoring here into that, and would love your involvement in that gitbook/project if you are interested. (Let’s chat?)
Please do use the Refactor however you would like, although please also add enough of a disclaimer to keep the context from this essay that the Refactor is an academic exercise which tries to stay roughly true to GiveWell’s design philosophy and assumptions while improving architecture and calculation conventions. I don’t think as a standalone piece of modelling it is the cutting edge of what EA could aspire to, whereas Nolan / McGuire really do seem to be operating at that level.
But yes, really happy to contribute if I can be of any help—drop me a message!