This is great. Thank you for writing it up and posting it! I gave it a strong upvote.
(TLDR for what follows: I think this is very neglected, but I’m highly uncertain about tractability of formal treaty-based regulation)
As you know, I did some space policy-related work at a think tank about a year ago, and one of the things that surprised us most is how neglected the issue is — there are only a handful of organizations seriously working on it, and very few of them are the kinds of well-connected and -respected think tanks that actually influence policy (CSIS is one). This is especially surprising because — as Jackson Wagner writes below — so much of space governance runs through U.S. policy. Anyway, I think that’s another point in favor of working on this!
As I think I mentioned when we talked about space stuff a little while ago, I’m a bit skeptical about tractability of “traditional” (ie formal, treaty-based) arms control. You note some of the challenges in the 80K version of the write up. Getting the major powers to agree to anything right now, let alone something as sensitive as space tech, seems unlikely. Moreover, the difficulties of verification and ease of cheating are high, as they are with all dual-use technology. Someone can come up with a nice “debris clean up” system that just happens to also be a co-orbital ASAT, for example.
Cyber is an example where a lot of actors have apparently decided that treaty-based arms control isn’t going to cut it (in part for political reasons, in part because the tech moves so fast), but there are still serious attempts at creating norms and regulation (https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/02/26/cyberspace-and-geopolitics-assessing-global-cybersecurity-norm-processes-at-crossroads-pub-81110). That includes standard setting and industry-driven processes, which feel especially appropriate in space, where private actors play such an important role. We have a report on autonomous weapons and AI-enabled warfare coming out soon at Founders Pledge, and I think that’s another space where people put too much emphasis on treaty-based regulation and neglect norms and confidence building measures for issues where great powers can agree on risk reduction.
Again, I think this is a great write up, and love that you are drawing attention to these issues. Thank you!
Hi Fin!
This is great. Thank you for writing it up and posting it! I gave it a strong upvote.
(TLDR for what follows: I think this is very neglected, but I’m highly uncertain about tractability of formal treaty-based regulation)
As you know, I did some space policy-related work at a think tank about a year ago, and one of the things that surprised us most is how neglected the issue is — there are only a handful of organizations seriously working on it, and very few of them are the kinds of well-connected and -respected think tanks that actually influence policy (CSIS is one). This is especially surprising because — as Jackson Wagner writes below — so much of space governance runs through U.S. policy. Anyway, I think that’s another point in favor of working on this!
As I think I mentioned when we talked about space stuff a little while ago, I’m a bit skeptical about tractability of “traditional” (ie formal, treaty-based) arms control. You note some of the challenges in the 80K version of the write up. Getting the major powers to agree to anything right now, let alone something as sensitive as space tech, seems unlikely. Moreover, the difficulties of verification and ease of cheating are high, as they are with all dual-use technology. Someone can come up with a nice “debris clean up” system that just happens to also be a co-orbital ASAT, for example.
But I think there are other mechanisms for creating “rules of the orbit” — that’s the word Simonetta di Pippo, the director of UNOOSA used at a workshop I helped organize last year. (https://global.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/perry-world-house/Dipippo_SpaceWorkshop.pdf)
Cyber is an example where a lot of actors have apparently decided that treaty-based arms control isn’t going to cut it (in part for political reasons, in part because the tech moves so fast), but there are still serious attempts at creating norms and regulation (https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/02/26/cyberspace-and-geopolitics-assessing-global-cybersecurity-norm-processes-at-crossroads-pub-81110). That includes standard setting and industry-driven processes, which feel especially appropriate in space, where private actors play such an important role. We have a report on autonomous weapons and AI-enabled warfare coming out soon at Founders Pledge, and I think that’s another space where people put too much emphasis on treaty-based regulation and neglect norms and confidence building measures for issues where great powers can agree on risk reduction.
Again, I think this is a great write up, and love that you are drawing attention to these issues. Thank you!