Strong upvote I love this, and agree with the central thesis. In general I agree with taking whatever clear opportunities arise to increase the good done in the world, even if it isn’t our primary thing.
Unfortunately where there are quantitative models available even when very poor, I find them to seem (with great uncertainty) more convincing than community leader opinion
“Community leaders in small, old, tight-knit communities (whether it’s Indigenous communities in Canada like my colleague interfaces with, or rural communities in the US, or villages in Uganda like Anthony Kalulu supports) have not only their own lifetime of experience to draw from, but also the experience passed down from generations of community leaders before them, perhaps for centuries or millennia. If you ask them what works, they could give you a better, more reliable answer than a quantitative model—if the only quantitative model they have access to has but a few months’ worth of data collected under questionable conditions.”
My experience (unfortunately) in Uganda doesn’t corroborate this. I agree its possible that they “could” give you a better answer than a quantitive model, but I don’t think they usually do. It hurts me a little to confess that BOL fermi-ish quantitive models (where possible) - done by experienced people with expertise in the field, seem in my limited experience usually better than the thoughts of an experienced community leader.
But your general point still stands—that influencing non-EA people, usually with non-quantatitve data to give and focus on better local causes could have great impact, and often wit little effort. There s also the chance of swinging people slowly towards more mainstream EA causes with this lighter touch approach.
(Can’t say enough how much I appreciate it when people take my words of uncertainty like “could” literally!) Indeed, in most situations I can think of, I’d prefer a quantitative model. Especially by an experienced expert! Would that it were always available. Thanks for your comment!
Strong upvote I love this, and agree with the central thesis. In general I agree with taking whatever clear opportunities arise to increase the good done in the world, even if it isn’t our primary thing.
Unfortunately where there are quantitative models available even when very poor, I find them to seem (with great uncertainty) more convincing than community leader opinion
“Community leaders in small, old, tight-knit communities (whether it’s Indigenous communities in Canada like my colleague interfaces with, or rural communities in the US, or villages in Uganda like Anthony Kalulu supports) have not only their own lifetime of experience to draw from, but also the experience passed down from generations of community leaders before them, perhaps for centuries or millennia. If you ask them what works, they could give you a better, more reliable answer than a quantitative model—if the only quantitative model they have access to has but a few months’ worth of data collected under questionable conditions.”
My experience (unfortunately) in Uganda doesn’t corroborate this. I agree its possible that they “could” give you a better answer than a quantitive model, but I don’t think they usually do. It hurts me a little to confess that BOL fermi-ish quantitive models (where possible) - done by experienced people with expertise in the field, seem in my limited experience usually better than the thoughts of an experienced community leader.
But your general point still stands—that influencing non-EA people, usually with non-quantatitve data to give and focus on better local causes could have great impact, and often wit little effort. There s also the chance of swinging people slowly towards more mainstream EA causes with this lighter touch approach.
(Can’t say enough how much I appreciate it when people take my words of uncertainty like “could” literally!) Indeed, in most situations I can think of, I’d prefer a quantitative model. Especially by an experienced expert! Would that it were always available. Thanks for your comment!