I don’t think near-term population is helpful for long-term population or wellbeing, e.g. in >10,000 years from now. More likely negative effect than positive effect imo, especially if the mechanism of trying to increase near-term population is to restrict abortion (this is not a random sample of lives!)
I also think it seems bad for general civilization trajectory (partially norm-damaging, but mostly just direct effects on women & children), probably bad for ability to make investments in resilience & be careful with powerful new technology. These seem like the most important effects from a longtermist perspective, so I think abortion-restriction is bad from a total-longtermist perspective.
Understandable! Would you still say, though, that abortion is intrinsically morally bad? (As in the above, that doesn’t at all mean you have to endorse involuntary methods of reducing it.)
No, though maybe you’re using the word “intrinsically” differently? For the (majority) consequentialist part of my moral portfolio: The main intrinsic bad is suffering, and wellbeing (somewhat broader) is intrinsically good.
I think any argument about creating people/etc is instrumental—will they or won’t they increase wellbeing? They can both potentially contain suffering/wellbeing themselves, and affect the world in ways that affect wellbeing/suffering now & in the future. This includes effects before they are born (e.g. on women’s lives). TBH given your above arguments, I’m confused about the focus on abortion—it seems like you should be just as opposed to people choosing not to have children, and focus on encouraging/supporting people having kids.
For now, I think the ~main thing that matters is from a total-view longtermist perspective is making it through “the technological precipice”, where risks of permanent loss of sentient life/our values is somewhat likely, so other total-view longtermist arguments flow through effects on this + influencing for good trajectory arguably. Since abortion access seems good for civilization trajectory (women can have children when the want, don’t have their lives & health derailed, etc), more women involved in the development of powerful technology probably makes these fields more cautious/less rash, fewer ‘unwanted children’ [probably worse life outcomes], etc. Then abortion access seems good.
Maybe related: in general when maximizing, I think it’s probably best to finding the most important 1-3 things, then focus on those things. (e.g. for temp of my house, focus on temp of thermostat + temp of outside + insulation quality, ignore body heat & similar small things)
Thanks for this detail! Yeah, I agree that encouraging/supporting people having kids is a more effective approach, and that other things matter more from a total longtermist perspective. (In particular, if human extinction does occur in the near term, then factory farming plausibly outweighs everything good we’ve ever done. Either way, we have much to catch up on.)
To be more precise on the question, do you think that with all else equal, choosing to have a child is better than choosing to abort, assuming that the child will live a net good life (in expectation)? (This is what I was trying to capture with the word “intrinsic”—without accounting for concerns of norms, opportunity costs, other interventions dominating, etc i.e. as a unitary yes-or-no decision.)
Your advice on optimization is definitely correct, and I have many regrets about the framing of this post, some of which I enumerate here.
I don’t think near-term population is helpful for long-term population or wellbeing, e.g. in >10,000 years from now. More likely negative effect than positive effect imo, especially if the mechanism of trying to increase near-term population is to restrict abortion (this is not a random sample of lives!)
I also think it seems bad for general civilization trajectory (partially norm-damaging, but mostly just direct effects on women & children), probably bad for ability to make investments in resilience & be careful with powerful new technology. These seem like the most important effects from a longtermist perspective, so I think abortion-restriction is bad from a total-longtermist perspective.
Understandable! Would you still say, though, that abortion is intrinsically morally bad? (As in the above, that doesn’t at all mean you have to endorse involuntary methods of reducing it.)
No, though maybe you’re using the word “intrinsically” differently? For the (majority) consequentialist part of my moral portfolio: The main intrinsic bad is suffering, and wellbeing (somewhat broader) is intrinsically good.
I think any argument about creating people/etc is instrumental—will they or won’t they increase wellbeing? They can both potentially contain suffering/wellbeing themselves, and affect the world in ways that affect wellbeing/suffering now & in the future. This includes effects before they are born (e.g. on women’s lives). TBH given your above arguments, I’m confused about the focus on abortion—it seems like you should be just as opposed to people choosing not to have children, and focus on encouraging/supporting people having kids.
For now, I think the ~main thing that matters is from a total-view longtermist perspective is making it through “the technological precipice”, where risks of permanent loss of sentient life/our values is somewhat likely, so other total-view longtermist arguments flow through effects on this + influencing for good trajectory arguably. Since abortion access seems good for civilization trajectory (women can have children when the want, don’t have their lives & health derailed, etc), more women involved in the development of powerful technology probably makes these fields more cautious/less rash, fewer ‘unwanted children’ [probably worse life outcomes], etc. Then abortion access seems good.
Maybe related: in general when maximizing, I think it’s probably best to finding the most important 1-3 things, then focus on those things. (e.g. for temp of my house, focus on temp of thermostat + temp of outside + insulation quality, ignore body heat & similar small things)
Thanks for this detail! Yeah, I agree that encouraging/supporting people having kids is a more effective approach, and that other things matter more from a total longtermist perspective. (In particular, if human extinction does occur in the near term, then factory farming plausibly outweighs everything good we’ve ever done. Either way, we have much to catch up on.)
To be more precise on the question, do you think that with all else equal, choosing to have a child is better than choosing to abort, assuming that the child will live a net good life (in expectation)? (This is what I was trying to capture with the word “intrinsic”—without accounting for concerns of norms, opportunity costs, other interventions dominating, etc i.e. as a unitary yes-or-no decision.)
Your advice on optimization is definitely correct, and I have many regrets about the framing of this post, some of which I enumerate here.