Agreed—I do not mean to imply nuclear holocaust would not be horrible.
I do not think the FLI should cherry pick extraordinarily high numbers to make that case though, and them doing so/us sharing them doing so eats away at our epistemic commons.
I’d really rather not show that video to a well informed friend as they’d go “Wait, but I know that’s wrong” and then discount other things I say about X-Risk.
Fair point. I guess the key problem is the lamentable lack of research on nuclear winter compared to other possible forms of climate change.
Google Scholar for example shows only 14,900 entries for “nuclear winter”, versus 2.6 million for ‘global warming’, and 3 million for ‘climate change’.
So, we’ve got roughly 375 times as much research on global warming as on nuclear winter.
Agreed—I do not mean to imply nuclear holocaust would not be horrible.
I do not think the FLI should cherry pick extraordinarily high numbers to make that case though, and them doing so/us sharing them doing so eats away at our epistemic commons.
I’d really rather not show that video to a well informed friend as they’d go “Wait, but I know that’s wrong” and then discount other things I say about X-Risk.
Fair point. I guess the key problem is the lamentable lack of research on nuclear winter compared to other possible forms of climate change.
Google Scholar for example shows only 14,900 entries for “nuclear winter”, versus 2.6 million for ‘global warming’, and 3 million for ‘climate change’.
So, we’ve got roughly 375 times as much research on global warming as on nuclear winter.