Agreed—I do not mean to imply nuclear holocaust would not be horrible.
I do not think the FLI should cherry pick extraordinarily high numbers to make that case though, and them doing so/us sharing them doing so eats away at our epistemic commons.
I’d really rather not show that video to a well informed friend as they’d go “Wait, but I know that’s wrong” and then discount other things I say about X-Risk.
I’ve made this market to help predict the likelihood:
https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/when-will-the-new-world-screwworm-b?r=Um9iZXJ0Q291c2luZWF1