I ran a timelines exercise in 2017 with many well known FHI staff (though not including Nick) where the point was to elicit one’s current beliefs for AGI by plotting CDFs. Looking at them now, I can tell you our median dates were: 2024, 2032, 2034, 2034, 2034, 2035, 2054, and 2079. So the median of our medians was (robustly) 2034 (i.e. 17 more years time). I was one of the people who had that date, though people didn’t see each others’ CDFs during the exercise.
I think these have held up well.
So I don’t think Eliezer’s “Oxford EAs” point is correct.
I ran a timelines exercise in 2017 with many well known FHI staff (though not including Nick) where the point was to elicit one’s current beliefs for AGI by plotting CDFs. Looking at them now, I can tell you our median dates were: 2024, 2032, 2034, 2034, 2034, 2035, 2054, and 2079. So the median of our medians was (robustly) 2034 (i.e. 17 more years time). I was one of the people who had that date, though people didn’t see each others’ CDFs during the exercise.
I think these have held up well.
So I don’t think Eliezer’s “Oxford EAs” point is correct.