I think that retroactive Impact Markets may be a net negative for many x-risk projects, however, I also think that in general Impact Markets may significantly reduce x-risk.
I think you have to bear in mind that if this project is highly successful, it has the potential to create a revolution in the funding of public goods. If humanity achieves much better funding and incentive mechanisms for public goods, this could create a massive increase in the efficiency of philanthropy.
It is hard to know how beneficial such a system would be, but it is not hard to see how mutilpying the effectiveness of philanthropy and public good provision could make society function much better by improving education, coordination, mental health, moral development, health, etc., and increases in these public goods could broadly improve humanity’s ability to confront many x-risks.
I think it may make sense for Impact Markets to find ways of limiting or excluding x-risk projects, but I think abandoning Impact Markets altogether would be a mistake, and considering their massive upsides I cannot say I agree that they are net negative in expectation, even without excluding x-risk projects.
I think that retroactive Impact Markets may be a net negative for many x-risk projects, however, I also think that in general Impact Markets may significantly reduce x-risk.
I think you have to bear in mind that if this project is highly successful, it has the potential to create a revolution in the funding of public goods. If humanity achieves much better funding and incentive mechanisms for public goods, this could create a massive increase in the efficiency of philanthropy.
It is hard to know how beneficial such a system would be, but it is not hard to see how mutilpying the effectiveness of philanthropy and public good provision could make society function much better by improving education, coordination, mental health, moral development, health, etc., and increases in these public goods could broadly improve humanity’s ability to confront many x-risks.
I think it may make sense for Impact Markets to find ways of limiting or excluding x-risk projects, but I think abandoning Impact Markets altogether would be a mistake, and considering their massive upsides I cannot say I agree that they are net negative in expectation, even without excluding x-risk projects.