Taken together, these factors suggest war between rational actors should be declining. The empirical evidence largely supports this, though with important caveats.
Iestimated the year explains 8.45 % of the variance in the logarithm of the annual conflict deaths as a fraction of the global population from 1400 to 2000, with a slope of −0.279 orders of magnitude per century, corresponding to that fraction becoming 52.6 % (= 10^-0.279) as large per century.
Thanks for the post, Linch.
I estimated the year explains 8.45 % of the variance in the logarithm of the annual conflict deaths as a fraction of the global population from 1400 to 2000, with a slope of −0.279 orders of magnitude per century, corresponding to that fraction becoming 52.6 % (= 10^-0.279) as large per century.
Thanks, appreciate the empirical note and graph on trendlines!