If AGI doom were likely, what additional evidence would we expect to see?
Humans are pursuing convergent instrumental subgoals much more. (Related question: will AGIs want to take over the world?)
A lot more anti-aging research is going on.
Children’s inheritances are ~always conditional on the child following some sort of rule imposed by the parent, intended to further the parent’s goals after their death.
Holidays and vacations are rare; when they are taken it is explicitly a form of rejuvenation before getting back to earning tons of money.
Economic incentives point strongly towards generality rather than specialization. (Related question: how general will AI systems be? Will they be capable of taking over the world?)
Universities don’t have “majors”, instead they just teach you how to be more generally intelligent.
(Really the entire world would look hugely different if this were the case; I struggle to imagine it.)
There’s probably more, I haven’t thought very long about it.
(Before responses of the form “what about e.g. the botched COVID response?”, let me note that this is about additional evidence; I’m not denying that there is existing evidence.)
Humans are pursuing convergent instrumental subgoals much more. (Related question: will AGIs want to take over the world?)
A lot more anti-aging research is going on.
Children’s inheritances are ~always conditional on the child following some sort of rule imposed by the parent, intended to further the parent’s goals after their death.
Holidays and vacations are rare; when they are taken it is explicitly a form of rejuvenation before getting back to earning tons of money.
Humans look like they are automatically strategic.
Humans are way worse at coordination. (Related question: can humans coordinate to prevent AI risk?)
Nuclear war happened some time after WW2.
Airplanes crash a lot more.
Unions never worked.
Economic incentives point strongly towards generality rather than specialization. (Related question: how general will AI systems be? Will they be capable of taking over the world?)
Universities don’t have “majors”, instead they just teach you how to be more generally intelligent.
(Really the entire world would look hugely different if this were the case; I struggle to imagine it.)
There’s probably more, I haven’t thought very long about it.
(Before responses of the form “what about e.g. the botched COVID response?”, let me note that this is about additional evidence; I’m not denying that there is existing evidence.)