comparing changes in probabilities with changes on a 100-point scale doesn’t make sense
“as users realize they can leave their money in a high-yield savings account” doesn’t apply to manifold or metaculus
metaculus is not really prediction markets and manifold markets are not polls (there are polls on manifold, but that is a different thing).
The end of democracy market was not at 23% at Oct 8, 2025, but rather in the 40′s. Perhaps this is an AI hallucination?
For markets that are closer to 0%, you say that long-horizon markets are systematically overpriced, but your overall argument seems to be that these markets underestimate democratic decline and are thus underpriced.
Of the three platforms hosting the markets tracked in this post, only Polymarket has taken direct action on the long-horizon problem, introducing a 4% annualized yield on long-term political and geopolitical positions in September 2025. Manifold’s play-money structure and Metaculus’s reputation-based system have no equivalent mechanism to address opportunity cost mispricing, and given their design, likely never will.
This is wrong, as metaculus avoids the opportunity cost mispricing entirely by not requiring currency for making predictions. And manifold had a loan system for a long time.
Overall, I find the confident tone and bold phrases such as avoid looking to prediction markets off-putting.
I think forum users should not upvote posts like this that frankly look like AI slop to me.
I think there are many flaws in this post:
comparing changes in probabilities with changes on a 100-point scale doesn’t make sense
“as users realize they can leave their money in a high-yield savings account” doesn’t apply to manifold or metaculus
metaculus is not really prediction markets and manifold markets are not polls (there are polls on manifold, but that is a different thing).
The end of democracy market was not at 23% at Oct 8, 2025, but rather in the 40′s. Perhaps this is an AI hallucination?
For markets that are closer to 0%, you say that long-horizon markets are systematically overpriced, but your overall argument seems to be that these markets underestimate democratic decline and are thus underpriced.
This is wrong, as metaculus avoids the opportunity cost mispricing entirely by not requiring currency for making predictions. And manifold had a loan system for a long time.
Overall, I find the confident tone and bold phrases such as avoid looking to prediction markets off-putting.
I think forum users should not upvote posts like this that frankly look like AI slop to me.