We actually want to hedge global temperature, which isn’t perfectly related to oil consumption. Is there a better hedge we could use?
Some dumb ideas, no idea if any of them are very good:
stocks/options on companies that sell air conditioners
Persuade the CME to offer long-run versions of their weather products.
Run climate model and buy real estate or assets based on real estate for places that will be much nicer to live after 3 degrees of warming (whether due to generally warmer temperatures, higher tideline, climate idiosyncracies, or something else)
Disaster relief stuff like Denkenberger suggests
Figure out which diseases are more likely in warmer temperatures, work out which small pharma companies are unusually well-suited to make a profit from preventing/curing those diseases
Run climate model and buy real estate or assets based on real estate for places that will be much nicer to live after 3 degrees of warming
This strikes me as the best idea, as long as you’re wealthy enough to buy a bunch of real estate as a hedge.
(FWIW It’s kind of irrelevant because I don’t actually think EAs should mission hedge climate change, that was just an example. I’m still 50⁄50 on whether mission hedging is even worth it, and if it is, climate change would not be on my list of the top 5 causes worth hedging.)
Some dumb ideas, no idea if any of them are very good:
stocks/options on companies that sell air conditioners
Persuade the CME to offer long-run versions of their weather products.
Run climate model and buy real estate or assets based on real estate for places that will be much nicer to live after 3 degrees of warming (whether due to generally warmer temperatures, higher tideline, climate idiosyncracies, or something else)
Disaster relief stuff like Denkenberger suggests
Figure out which diseases are more likely in warmer temperatures, work out which small pharma companies are unusually well-suited to make a profit from preventing/curing those diseases
???
This strikes me as the best idea, as long as you’re wealthy enough to buy a bunch of real estate as a hedge.
(FWIW It’s kind of irrelevant because I don’t actually think EAs should mission hedge climate change, that was just an example. I’m still 50⁄50 on whether mission hedging is even worth it, and if it is, climate change would not be on my list of the top 5 causes worth hedging.)