Brian Tomasik wrote a similar article several years ago on Predictions of AGI Takeoff Speed vs. Years Worked in Commercial Software. In general, AI experts with the most experience working in commercial software tend to expect a soft takeoff, rather than a hard takeoff.
I appreciate you posting this picture, which I had not seen before. I just want to add that this was compiled in 2014, and some of the people in the picture have likely shifted in their views since then.
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Brian Tomasik wrote a similar article several years ago on Predictions of AGI Takeoff Speed vs. Years Worked in Commercial Software. In general, AI experts with the most experience working in commercial software tend to expect a soft takeoff, rather than a hard takeoff.
I appreciate you posting this picture, which I had not seen before. I just want to add that this was compiled in 2014, and some of the people in the picture have likely shifted in their views since then.