The odds of 1:7 imply a 12.5% chance of a crash, and I think the chance is much higher (elsewhere I posted a guess of 40% for this year, though I did not have precise crash criteria in mind there, and would lower the percentage once it’s judged by a few measures, rather than my sense of “that looks like a crash”).
That percentage of 12.5% is far outside of the consensus on this Metaculus page. Though I notice that their criteria for a “bust or winter” are much stricter than where I’d set the threshold for a crash. Still that makes me wonder whether I should have selected an even lower odd ratio. Regardless, this month I’m prepared to take this bet.
Why such poor odds?
Frankly, because I’d want to profit from it.
The odds of 1:7 imply a 12.5% chance of a crash, and I think the chance is much higher (elsewhere I posted a guess of 40% for this year, though I did not have precise crash criteria in mind there, and would lower the percentage once it’s judged by a few measures, rather than my sense of “that looks like a crash”).
That percentage of 12.5% is far outside of the consensus on this Metaculus page. Though I notice that their criteria for a “bust or winter” are much stricter than where I’d set the threshold for a crash. Still that makes me wonder whether I should have selected an even lower odd ratio. Regardless, this month I’m prepared to take this bet.