It’s indeed not obvious what I mean when I write “a smoothed-out line between the estimated growth rate at the respective years listed along the x-axis”. It’s neither the annual growth rate in that particular year in isolation (which is subject to significant fluctuations), nor the annual average growth rate from the previously listed year to the next listed year (which would generally not be a good estimate for the latter year).
Instead, it’s an estimated underlying growth rate at that year based on the growth rates in the (more) closely adjacent years. I can see that the value I estimated for 2021 was 2.65 percent, the average growth rate from 2015-2022 (according to the data from The World Bank). One could also have chosen, say, 2020-2022, which would yield an estimate of 2.01 percent, but that’s arguably too low an estimate given the corona recession.
Thanks, and thanks for the question! :)
It’s indeed not obvious what I mean when I write “a smoothed-out line between the estimated growth rate at the respective years listed along the x-axis”. It’s neither the annual growth rate in that particular year in isolation (which is subject to significant fluctuations), nor the annual average growth rate from the previously listed year to the next listed year (which would generally not be a good estimate for the latter year).
Instead, it’s an estimated underlying growth rate at that year based on the growth rates in the (more) closely adjacent years. I can see that the value I estimated for 2021 was 2.65 percent, the average growth rate from 2015-2022 (according to the data from The World Bank). One could also have chosen, say, 2020-2022, which would yield an estimate of 2.01 percent, but that’s arguably too low an estimate given the corona recession.
Thanks for clarifying!