I do think it’s a mistake to update your credence based off someone else’s credence without knowing their argument and without knowing whether they’re calibrated.
I’d agree with a modified version of your claim, along the following lines: “You should update more based on someone’s credence if you have more reason to believe their credence will track the truth, e.g. by knowing they’ve got good evidence (even if you haven’t actually seen the evidence) or knowing they’re well-calibrated. There’ll be some cases where you have so little reason to believe their credence will track the truth that, for practical purposes, it’s essentiallynot worth updating.”
But your claim at least sounds like it’s instead that some people are calibrated while others aren’t (a binary distinction), and when people aren’t calibrated, you really shouldn’t update based on their credences at all (at least if you haven’t seen their arguments).
I think calibration increases in a quantitative, continuous way, rather than switching from off to on. So I think we should just update on credences more the more calibrated the person they’re from is.
I’d agree with a modified version of your claim, along the following lines: “You should update more based on someone’s credence if you have more reason to believe their credence will track the truth, e.g. by knowing they’ve got good evidence (even if you haven’t actually seen the evidence) or knowing they’re well-calibrated. There’ll be some cases where you have so little reason to believe their credence will track the truth that, for practical purposes, it’s essentially not worth updating.”
But your claim at least sounds like it’s instead that some people are calibrated while others aren’t (a binary distinction), and when people aren’t calibrated, you really shouldn’t update based on their credences at all (at least if you haven’t seen their arguments).
I think calibration increases in a quantitative, continuous way, rather than switching from off to on. So I think we should just update on credences more the more calibrated the person they’re from is.
Does that sound right to you?