I don’t find your arguments persuasive for why people should give reasoning in addition to credences. I think posting reasoning is on the margin of net value, and I wish more people did it, but I also acknowledge that people’s time is expensive so I understand why they choose not to. You list reasons why giving reasoning is beneficial, but not reasons for why it’s sufficient to justify the cost.
My question probing predictive ability of EAs earlier was an attempt to set right what I consider to be an inaccuracy in the internal impressions EAs have about the ability of superforecasters. In particular, it’s not obvious to me that we should trust the judgments of superforecasters substantially more than we trust the judgments of other EAs.
I don’t find your arguments persuasive for why people should give reasoning in addition to credences. I think posting reasoning is on the margin of net value, and I wish more people did it, but I also acknowledge that people’s time is expensive so I understand why they choose not to. You list reasons why giving reasoning is beneficial, but not reasons for why it’s sufficient to justify the cost.
My question probing predictive ability of EAs earlier was an attempt to set right what I consider to be an inaccuracy in the internal impressions EAs have about the ability of superforecasters. In particular, it’s not obvious to me that we should trust the judgments of superforecasters substantially more than we trust the judgments of other EAs.