That’s an interesting point. I guess AGI timelines could affect this topic, but only if they would be extremely short. I guess that the expected time until a major PR event is somewhere within the coming years (I estimated 0.5-2 years, and I’d guess it’s very likely within 5 years), and AGI timelines are usually longer than that.
Maybe even the shorter AGI timelines are, the more we should be afraid of catastrophic PR events. Say, if an event is about to happen around next year, and it would take us a couple of decades to recover, then we might be significantly less prepared for an AGI takeoff that happens during the recovery phase.
That’s an interesting point. I guess AGI timelines could affect this topic, but only if they would be extremely short. I guess that the expected time until a major PR event is somewhere within the coming years (I estimated 0.5-2 years, and I’d guess it’s very likely within 5 years), and AGI timelines are usually longer than that.
Maybe even the shorter AGI timelines are, the more we should be afraid of catastrophic PR events. Say, if an event is about to happen around next year, and it would take us a couple of decades to recover, then we might be significantly less prepared for an AGI takeoff that happens during the recovery phase.