I intuitively agree with this post, but there’s a crux here that would make me disagree: short AGI timelines and X-risk causes that are robust to EA brand collapse.
If AGI timelines are short, maybe it makes sense for the EA movement to just sprint right now (e.g., make lots of bets with money), even if that risks bad PR. This seems especially true if work on a cause like AI safety can stay productive regardless of whether or not the EA brand is intact.
That’s an interesting point. I guess AGI timelines could affect this topic, but only if they would be extremely short. I guess that the expected time until a major PR event is somewhere within the coming years (I estimated 0.5-2 years, and I’d guess it’s very likely within 5 years), and AGI timelines are usually longer than that.
Maybe even the shorter AGI timelines are, the more we should be afraid of catastrophic PR events. Say, if an event is about to happen around next year, and it would take us a couple of decades to recover, then we might be significantly less prepared for an AGI takeoff that happens during the recovery phase.
If AGI timelines are short, maybe it makes sense for the EA movement to just sprint right now
I am quick to agree with the above, but I never realized that GidonKadosh advocated moving slowly as opposed to moving faster. Where does GidonKadosh make a claim about speed itself? My understanding was that the original post was concerned with strategies for and qualities of branding.
I intuitively agree with this post, but there’s a crux here that would make me disagree: short AGI timelines and X-risk causes that are robust to EA brand collapse.
If AGI timelines are short, maybe it makes sense for the EA movement to just sprint right now (e.g., make lots of bets with money), even if that risks bad PR. This seems especially true if work on a cause like AI safety can stay productive regardless of whether or not the EA brand is intact.
That’s an interesting point. I guess AGI timelines could affect this topic, but only if they would be extremely short. I guess that the expected time until a major PR event is somewhere within the coming years (I estimated 0.5-2 years, and I’d guess it’s very likely within 5 years), and AGI timelines are usually longer than that.
Maybe even the shorter AGI timelines are, the more we should be afraid of catastrophic PR events. Say, if an event is about to happen around next year, and it would take us a couple of decades to recover, then we might be significantly less prepared for an AGI takeoff that happens during the recovery phase.
I am quick to agree with the above, but I never realized that GidonKadosh advocated moving slowly as opposed to moving faster. Where does GidonKadosh make a claim about speed itself? My understanding was that the original post was concerned with strategies for and qualities of branding.