I mostly just forecasted the covid-19 questions on Metaculus directly. I do think predicting covid early on (before May?) was a near-ideal epistemic environment for this, because of various factors like
a) important
b) in a weird social epistemic state where lots of disparate, individually easy to understand, true information is out there
c) where lots of false information is out there
d) have very fast feedback loops and
e) predicting things/truth-seeking is shocking uncompetitive.
The feedback cycle (maybe several times a week for some individual questions) are still slower than what the deliberate practice research was focused on (specific techniques in arts and sports with sub-minute feedback). But it’s much much better than other plausibly important things.
I probably also benefited from practice through the South Bay EA meetups[1] and the Open Phil calibration game[2].
[1] If going through all the worksheets is intimidating, I recommend just trying this one (start with “Intro to forecasting” and then do the “Intro to forecasting worksheet.” EDIT 2020/07/04: Fixed worksheet.
What sort of training material did you use to predict and get feedback on (#deliberate practice)
I mostly just forecasted the covid-19 questions on Metaculus directly. I do think predicting covid early on (before May?) was a near-ideal epistemic environment for this, because of various factors like
The feedback cycle (maybe several times a week for some individual questions) are still slower than what the deliberate practice research was focused on (specific techniques in arts and sports with sub-minute feedback). But it’s much much better than other plausibly important things.
I probably also benefited from practice through the South Bay EA meetups[1] and the Open Phil calibration game[2].
[1] If going through all the worksheets is intimidating, I recommend just trying this one (start with “Intro to forecasting” and then do the “Intro to forecasting worksheet.” EDIT 2020/07/04: Fixed worksheet.
[2] https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/new-web-app-calibration-training