I actually answered this before, on the meme page:
The gut instinct answer is 100 duck-sized horses, because ducks are much scarier than horses. But one of the things that being a page admin of counterintuitive philosophical problems has taught us is that sometimes we can’t always go with our gut. Here, for example, a horse-sized duck, while very intimidating and scary looking, is probably not structurally sound enough to stand upright for long, and we can probably escape it and let it collapse under its own weight. In contrast, 100 duck-sized horses wouldn’t be much weaker than 100 normal-sized horses (https://supersonicman.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/the-square-cube-law-all-animals-jump-the-same-height/), and they’ll definitely have scary kicks.
I still stand by this. maybe 85% that I can win against the duck, and 20% the horses? Depends a lot on initial starting position of course.
Speaking of gut instincts, cognitive psychology looks A LOT into what forms gut instincts take shape and fool us into bad answers or bad lines of reasoning. They’d call them cognitive biases. When building models, how do you ensure that there is as little of these biases in the model? To add to that, does some of the uncertainty you mentioned in other answers come from these biases, or are they purely statistical?
Forecast your win probability in a fight against:
500 horses, each with the mass of an average duck.
1 duck, with the mass of an average horse.
(numbers chosen so mass is roughly equal)
I actually answered this before, on the meme page:
I still stand by this. maybe 85% that I can win against the duck, and 20% the horses? Depends a lot on initial starting position of course.
Speaking of gut instincts, cognitive psychology looks A LOT into what forms gut instincts take shape and fool us into bad answers or bad lines of reasoning. They’d call them cognitive biases. When building models, how do you ensure that there is as little of these biases in the model? To add to that, does some of the uncertainty you mentioned in other answers come from these biases, or are they purely statistical?